THE LAST BreXit Now! article produced by Liberal Future (LF) was published on 29th January. This was two days before the UK formally left the European Union.  The article – Glamorgan, Merioneth & Monmouthshire Youth  Say  …  The  Struggle  Continues  –  BreXit  Now! http://nationalliberal.org/liberal-future-glamorgan-merioneth-monmouthshire-youth-say-…-the-struggle-continues-–-brexit-now – made one important prediction.  Here, we noted that we were:

‘more than confident that we’ll formally leave the EU at 11pm on Friday – irrespective of whether Big Ben bongs or not! Indeed, we believe that many Welsh freedom lovers will be celebrating here. Others may even travel to London to join the main Brexit celebrations which’ll be held in London’s Parliament Square. We understand that some of the celebrations will be televised, so we’re hoping to see a few Red Dragon flags – Y Ddraig Goch – flying.’

Thankfully, we were bang on the money.  As everyone now knows we eventually left the EU at the end of January – a mere three and a half years after the original People’s Vote (aka the EU Refenendum) of 23rd June 2016!

Many Welsh freedom lovers held private celebrations to celebrate ‘Independence Day’.  Others travelled to London to join thousands at the main Leave Means Leave rally.  And although not enough money could be raised to speed up repairs to Big Ben (so that it could symbolically ring at 11pm) we did spot several Welsh flags in the crowd.

However, celebrating Brexit and seeing it over the line are two completely different things.  As we’ve mentioned before, LF has never shared the jingoistic & over-simplistic view (mainly promoted by what we’d term as the ‘reactionary right’) that getting ‘our country back’ will be a simple matter of leaving the EU.

For instance, 1st February represented the start of the official transition period.  Here the UK would no longer have to stand by EU laws and would be free to sign trade deals with other countries.  However, in practical terms this means that we’re more at the mercy of a Tory Brexit than ever before.  And as most people know, we at Liberal Future wouldn’t trust the Tories as far as we could throw them!

An article in The Independent – https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-uk-leave-eu-parliament-square-event-nigel-farage-a9312426.html – reflected our caution when it correctly noted that:

‘Brexit is done – technically.  But so much of Mr Johnson’s work is still ahead of him, and it remains to be seen whether the eventual outcome is what these jubilant Leave voters envisioned when they cast their ballots.

The prime minister must now negotiate trade deals with Brussels, Donald Trump’s Washington, and other capitals, balancing all their demands against the living standards Britons have become used to over half a century of EU membership.’

That was published on 1st February.  The intervening nine months has seen Brexit play second fiddle to Covid-19 in the main news headline.  Every so often we’re given a brief hint of what’s being discussed & agreed to behind closed doors.  Additionally, we’ve been stuck with ‘silly season’ (so called as parliament wasn’t usually sitting in July & August and there weren’t a lot of really serious stories in the media) and to some extent, both pro and anti-Brexit forces are rattling their sabres as this article from The Telegraph illustrates https://www.msn.com/en-gb/ news/brexit/michel-barnier-tells-mark-francois-that-brexit-is-pointless/ar-BB16zadJ?ocid=sf

Despite all this, Liberal Future is convinced that a deal will be done between the UK and the EU. However, given all the bluster & sabre rattling by both sides since the June 2016 EU Referendum, we wouldn’t be surprised to see negotiations go on right up to the wire (and even beyond?).  For some bizarre reason, the politicians seem to love and thrive on drama – or as Britney Speers would have it, All Eyes On Us.

However, there’s two reasons why we think that the current negotiations will be completed by the end of the year.

Firstly, whilst sorting out the ‘European Question’ has meant the political graveyard for so many Tory leaders, Boris Johnson seems more than determined to buck the trend.  We feel that he’s already got his eye on the history books & wants to be remembered as the Conservative who finally sorted out the UKs relationship with the EU. In some sense it’s his ‘vanity project’.  Many people are taken in by his bumbling manner & wild appearance but – to us at least – he’s a sharp cookie: How else would he have risen so far in the British Establishment?  And let’s not forget it takes a wise man to play the fool!

There’s a second reason why we feel that a deal is more than on the cards.  And that is because the EU – at heart – is a rich man’s club for powerful corporate big business and banking elites. (Their underlings – the politicians – are happy enough with the trappings of power.)

As we know, the one thing that really motivates the capitalist elite is money.  As long as they’re making money, even if it’s from ‘Famine, War and Plague’ they’re more than happy.  A ‘no deal’ scenario will eat into their profit margins & upset investors.  For them money makes the world go around.  A ‘no-deal’ will cost them, but capitalism will eventually recover from such an outcome.  But why lose  money when you don’t have to?  It makes perfect sense for the capitalist elites to get the politicians to make a deal that’ll allow both the UK and EU to wave their respective flags and claim ‘victory’.

Once again, Liberal Future is reasonably confident that its reading the runestones correctly.  The UK and EU will make the deal.  But will we be right – or will we end up with egg on our face?  Deal or no deal?  Our next article in this BreXitNow! series will tell the tale.

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• THIS ARTICLE should be read in conjunction with the following:

Liberal Future: For A Europe Of Free Nations – BreXit Now! http://nationalliberal.org/liberal-future-for-a-europe-of-free-nations-brexit-now

Liberal Future: County Londonderry, County Antrim & County Down Youth Say … Independence From the EU – BreXit Now! http://nationalliberal.org/liberal-future-county-londonderry-county-antrim-county-down-youthsay-…-independence-from-the-eu-–-brexit-now

Liberal Future: Anglesey, Brecknockshire, Caernarfonshire & Ceredigion Youth Say … Blood Over Gold – BreXit Now! http://nationalliberal.org/liberal-future-anglesey-brecknockshire-caernarfonshire-ceredigion-youth-say-…-blood-over-gold-–-brexit-now

Liberal Future: Carmarthenshire, Denbighshire & Flintshire Youth Say … Ignore The Establishment Media Narrative – BreXit Now! http://nationalliberal.org/liberal-future-carmarthenshire-denbighshire-flintshire-youth-say-…-ignore-the-establishment-media-narrative-–-brexit-now

Liberal Future: Glamorgan, Merioneth & Monmouthshire Youth Say … The Struggle Continues – BreXit Now! http://nationalliberal.org/liberal-future-glamorgan-merioneth-monmouthshire-youth-say-…-the-struggle-continues-–-brexit-now